World Postal Survey 2008

Are things getting better or worse? This is the sixth world postal survey and it is about the health and state of the postal world. It has become a regular feature on the annual postal calendar as a “barometer of confidence in the postal industry”.

The results for 2008 will be announced at Post Expo 2008 in London. As in previous years, it is designed to capture the morale and expectation of as many people in the industry as possible.

 

World Postal Survey 2007

Summary of the outcome of the World Postal Survey 2007

The World Postal Survey 2007 is the fifth annual survey of the perceptions of people who work in the postal industry. It has become acknowledged as the global barometer of confidence in the sector, and is important because it reports directly on the perceptions of a cross-section of people who work in the industry at different levels and across many different countries. From the first survey in 2003 up to and including this one in 2007, people from 59 different countries have taken part.

New countries participating in 2007 included Mauritius, Tunisia, Namibia, Sri Lanka, Morocco and Greece. Also new for 2007 were two questions concerning the industry and the environment. These were:

‘What do you think is the impact of the postal industry on the global environment?’

‘Do you think that the postal organisation that you work for has a responsible environmental strategy?’

Results for 2007, including trends from 2003-2007

	World Postal Survey 2007 Click here to download the results of the survey

The first question – relating to whether respondents think that the volume of domestic mail will grow, decline or stay the same – produced a mixed message, which was reflected in much of this year’s survey. The number who said it would grow was down to 35% from 42% in 2006. However it still showed that 70% felt that domestic mail would either grow or remain the same, and only 30% felt that it would decline. This is not representative of the general perception in Europe and developed countries, where public statements tend to be more pessimistic about core mail volumes.

The mixed message continued with the results on the volume of international mail, with a higher percentage (62% – highest figure from an upward trend over the last few years) saying that this stream will grow. But at the same time, the figure saying that it would decline was also up significantly to 28% (more than the last two years and nearly up to the 2004 level, which reflected the fear of competition at that time).

The result in 2007 for the perception of the volume of direct mail, usually considered to be the backbone of mail volumes for many of the posts in developed countries, also showed a slight decrease in the percentage who envisaged growth – 68% to 65% – but a major increase in those who foresaw a decline in direct mail. This could be related to adverse consumer reaction, market saturation or other factors. It nevertheless remains that for most posts, this represents a major growth stream opportunity – particularly through innovative use of variable data printing, integrated media and converging with other digital technologies such as the internet, CD and DVD.

A very similar ‘wobble’ of confidence was evident in the perception of courier and express volumes. Here the percentage saying that these will grow also slipped from 68% in 2006 to 65% in 2007, with the percentage feeling that it would decline shifting from last year’s ‘stay the same’ to lift the figure anticipating decline from 10% in 2006 to 27% in 2007.

When considering the level of direct competition in the letter market, there seems to be a recognition that we now live in a competitive environment which is only going to grow, reflecting what is happening in Europe but on the global mailscape. Although the figure for those who believe that competition will grow has risen to 75%, nearly all the rest (24%) actually believe it will decline. Meanwhile, in the equivalent result for competition in the courier and express market (a sector that is accustomed to competition), the position was mirrored somewhat, with the figure expecting a decline in levels of competition going up from 3% in 2006 to 26% in 2007.

The debate about competing and collaborating continues, but there seems to be an acknowledgement that most of the competition to the postal industry comes from outside the sector (e.g. media and telecoms). There seems to be a growing consensus around the need for sensible collaboration, confirmed by the figure of 65% who feel that this will grow. It is also supported by anecdotal evidence of more collaborative activity such as benchmarking, sharing good practice and development of initiatives designed to build knowledge, research and managerial capability in the sector, such as the new Executive Master in Postal Leadership being launched by EPFL in Lausanne.

In terms of customers and quality, it seems that there is some feeling that postal companies may no longer be able to rely on the traditional trust and respect given to them by customers. The percentage of those who feel that this will decline has risen from 3% in 2006 to 32% in 2007, although 64% still feel it will grow, as companies become more customer focused in all that they do.

One of the most clear-cut and unambiguous results from 2007 relates to the question of whether customers will be more demanding. This year, 99% said that they would and only 1% disagreed, which reflects the perception of consumer aspirations. Companies have no choice: customers must be preeminent. This is also confirmed by a steady increase over the last three years in the recognition that quality of service will have to improve (92%), although it is still not at the level recorded in 2004 (94%).

The questions that were introduced in 2006 around business orientation and developing a commercial culture reconfirm this year, in stronger terms, that these represent the continuing journey of reform and culture change that are essential for companies to compete in the future, generate profit and grow their market by getting alongside customers and developing the innovative products and services that they need. It is not necessary to wait for liberalisation. 85% agreed with the statement that ‘your postal company will become more business oriented’ – up from 77% last year. At the same time, 88% agreed with the statement ‘your company will develop a more commercial culture’, which is up from 79% last year. These are quite strong figures that mark a major change from the public sector monopolies that were in the vast majority only five years ago.

One other factor that also seems to have become a fact of life is that ‘organisational change’ is business as usual. 82% of respondents felt that they expect to have more significant organisational changes in the year to come, and only 18% disagreed. The impact on numbers of staff employed and career opportunities has also been felt, with only 25% now thinking that staff numbers will grow in the coming year and 38% feeling that they will decline. Some major attrition is already planned or taking place in some of the larger companies. At the same time, 39% think that career opportunities will grow, but almost half (48%) don’t know. This suggests that there is still some uncertainty among staff, which will affect performance, motivation and morale.

On the new questions about the environment, the results could be viewed as quite encouraging. 55% felt that the overall impact of the postal industry on the environment was positive, with only 27% of respondents registering that the impact was negative. It could be argued that the 18% who were neutral suggests that the issue has not yet featured significantly for them. On the question of the existence of a responsible environmental strategy, 77% said that they believed that their company had one, and only 23% said that they didn’t. However, this should be a challenge to the industry if one quarter does not yet have a strategy in relation to the major challenges facing the world with regard to climate change, global warming, emissions and carbon footprints for example.

Finally, the ‘bottom line’ measure for this barometer of confidence in the postal industry is the question which asks about their confidence in the future of their organisation. Since the outset of this survey in 2003, this value has consistently risen from 43% in 2003 on a steadily rising trajectory, which contradicts much of the negative talk from business leaders or even industry commentators. In 2006 there was a small confidence explosion, which took the figure that had high confidence in their organisation up to 63%, but this year it returned to 59%, which matches the long-term trend.

For the peer awards, this year was noticeable for two features. First, many more national postal operators were nominated and voted for, reflecting a much wider base of organisations that were felt to meet the high standards identified in the criteria for each award. This is very positive and suggests that more companies are providing better customer service, business excellence and world-class performance. The second feature was that all three awards were clearly won by DHL. Part of the explanation for this is that DHL must live up to these criteria in the view of its peers, but it may also be partly because of the company’s strong global presence, which means its brand is much more widely recognised than any other.

For more information about this survey and the results, please contact Patrick van Lammeren at Patrick@ebissinternational.be or Derek Osborn at derekosborn@whatnext4u.com